Sports Betting Tips: How To Make Money Knowing How A Team Plays On Lawn And Grass
The success of sports betting often comes down to knowing the personalities of the teams they play. One aspect of a team’s personality is how well it plays on artificial grass compared to natural grass. Here is an analysis I did of a game between Ball St. and Toledo that exemplifies how to use this information to make money:
This game pairs two teams that have scored a lot of points and have yielded a lot of points this season. Ball St. averages 27 points on offense while giving up 28 points on defense. Toledo is giving up even more points on defense, 29 per game, while “just” averaging 23 points per game.
Ball St. has managed to cover 6 of 9 games this year, despite having a lousy 3-7 SU record. But their ATS record does not include a game in which they lost SU to N. Dakota St. For the sake of accuracy, let’s count this game against Ball St., making their “real” ATS record 6-4.
But here’s an interesting fact related to tonight’s game. Ball St., which plays its home games on grass, has a surprisingly good record playing on artificial grass. In his last 10 games, Ball St. is 8-2 ATS on artificial turf, including SU’s losses against Miami (OH), E. Michigan, N. Illinois (a game where Ball St. was a 28-year-old dog). points), and W. Michigan (a game in which Ball St. was an 11 1/2 point dog).
HBall St. has stepped over the line by a whopping 17 points per game! And all these surprises happened when Ball St. was playing on artificial turf.
On the other hand, Ball St. has played 10 away games on natural grass since 2002, and they have lost 9 of 10 SU, and are only 4-6 ATS on grass playing away from home. Do you see a pattern here? Do you think maybe the Ball St. team is more suited to playing on artificial turf than on grass?
Even against # 2 Michigan, Ball St. QB Nate Davis and speedy catcher Darius Love had great games, with Davis throwing for 250 yards and Love with more than 100 yards receiving, including an average of more than 17 yards per reception. There is no reason why Davis and Love shouldn’t have a similar game against Toledo, a team that averaged giving up more than 400 total yards per game. The fact that this game is played on artificial turf
The bottom line from this game is that Ball St. has a legitimate chance to win outright. The fact that they get 5 points can be an advantage.
The downside is that Ball St. was beaten by Toledo in each of the last two seasons, losing in 2005 by a score of 34-14 and losing in 2004 by a score of 52-14. I know this is 2006, not 2004 or 2005, but when you look at recent history that has been so one-sided, you can see why everyone expects Toledo to win this game. The bottom line is that these factors tend to balance out, with only a slight advantage for Ball St.
I would lean towards Ball St. to cover with Ball St. defeating Toledo 34-31. But again, keep in mind that there is nothing to make me think that this is a very high probability play.
Ball St. actually defeated Toledo in this game, winning 20-17. Just by understanding Ball St.’s track record in artificial turf, people interested in sports betting could have made a lot of money betting on this game.